Israel Has Reduced Gaza to Rubble. War With Iran Would be a Whole New Ball Game

 

The fires of the Israel-Hamas war are now threatening to burn the entire region.

On Saturday night, some 350 drones and missiles were launched at Israel by Iran, and though most were shot down, several missiles did hit some Israeli military facilities.

The world is now waiting to see if Israel retaliates, or as the Americans are suggesting, that having successfully dealt with the attack, Tel Aviv should declare victory and avoid further action against Tehran. As for Iran, its military mission at the United Nations (UN) announced that its military action had concluded.

The incident shows how the war is generating ripples that are reaching our shores. India receives most of its oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Indian Navy has already been active in guarding shipping in the Arabian Sea against attacks by the Houthis. Now India has advised its citizens not to travel to Iran or Israel and air routes have been diverted, increasing the travel time.

Israel's Military Capacity to Attack Iran and US Support

The Iranian actions are a retaliation for the strike at a diplomatic facility in Damascus on 1 April that killed Brig-Gen Mohammed Reza Zahedi and six other Quds Force officers. This force is one of the five branches of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) specialising in special operations abroad and intelligence. The United States (US) has designated the IRGC as a “terrorist” organisation.

The Israelis said that they had shot down “a vast majority” of the projectiles. According to US officials, American forces too had intercepted dozens of missiles and drones, as did the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. Reports on X (formerly Twitter) said that the Iranians made seven hits on the Ramon Air Base and another seven on Nevatim Air Base in Israel, though the damage caused is not known.

The fact that Israel had been struck by missiles fired from Iran is being seen as an escalation in what was till now a proxy war between the two countries. Hitting a diplomatic facility required a direct Iranian response against Israel.

After six months of the war, US support for Israeli actions in Gaza is becoming increasingly conditional, but Washington has ensured that attacks from so-called Iranian proxies in the region have been countered. Now it has acted quickly to support Israel in defeating a direct attack from Iran.

According to President Biden, the US had moved aircraft and ballistic missile defence destroyers in the past week to defend Israel. He had issued a one-word warning to Iran — Don’t — and said that “the US was devoted to the defence of Israel.”

After the Iranian attack was largely foiled on Saturday, President Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US would not support an Israeli retaliation to the Iranian attack or participate in any offensive attack. The US is concerned that a response to the Iranian attack could lead to a larger regional war with catastrophic consequences. It should not be forgotten that Israel possesses nuclear weapons and the Iranians are close to achieving the capability.

Vantage Point: How Israel, Iran, and the US View the Latest Escalations

Ever since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war, a shadowy proxy conflict has also been occurring between the US and Iran but neither side seems to want an all-out war which would have unpredictable consequences. As a part of this, there have been nearly 200 attacks on US military bases and assets in Syria, Iraq, and Jordan resulting in injuries to dozens of US personnel. The Americans have retaliated strongly, killing over 30 militants through air strikes.

The US maintains some 2500 personnel in dozens of facilities in Iraq, as well as 800 in Syria and some 200 in Jordan. They are there to conduct covert operations against the Islamic State and Iran-backed groups. The Americans also operate from two airbases in Iraq, Al Asad and Al Harir, both of which have faced militant attacks.

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